Unexpectedly big drop in UK house prices

House price growth slowed sharply last month as the market sees its biggest monthly fall since June 2020 according to the latest figures from Nationwide.

The last time house prices dropped this much, this fast was in the early days of the pandemic, immediately before the first stamp duty holiday boosted the market. However, most mainstream forecasters continue to predict a correction, not a crash.

Nationwide's figures for November

.

November 2022

October 2022

Monthly change

-1.4%

-0.9%

Annual change

+4.4%

+7.2%

Average price

£263,788

£268,282

Robert Gardner, chief economist, Nationwide -

"While financial market conditions have stabilised, interest rates for new mortgages have remained elevated and the market has lost a significant amount of momentum. Housing affordability for potential buyers and home movers has become much more stretched at a time when household finances are already under pressure from high inflation.

"The market looks set to remain subdued in the coming quarters. Inflation is set to remain high for some time and Bank Rate is likely to rise further as the Bank of England seeks to ensure demand in the economy slows to relieve domestic price pressures."

Looking ahead

Where might prices level out? Mainstream forecasts remain largely within a range of 5% to 12% from their August highs. According to those at the lower end of the scale the market is already half way there, but these latest figures suggest that this looks optimistic at best. However, other factors, such as the prospect of further falls in mortgage rates and a cut-back in new housing starts are likely to put a floor under house prices.

Looing back, it can be argued that the conditions for a levelling off in house prices were in place a year ago. Pandemic restrictions had been lifted and stamp duty holidays brought to an end. However, prices rose a further 10% before coming to a halt. A return to 2021 prices may well signal a return to pre-Covid normality.