Hometrack UK Cities Index - July 2020

According to the Zoopla/Hometrack Index, property values in the UK's major cities do not appear to be suffering any ill effects from the pandemic, with 16 of the largest 20 recording gains of 2% or more over the last year.

• ​Housing market conditions remain unseasonably strong.
• Supply/demand imbalance supporting headline rate of growth and has resulted in the time to sell a home falling 31% since the lockdown.
• Changing buyer requirements see 4/5 bed homes selling faster than flats.
• More new supply coming from wealthier demographics.
• House price growth of 2 3% by end of 2020.
• A major decline in UK house prices is unlikely despite onset of UK recession.

​Annual UK house price inflation +2.5%

Housing market activity continues to run at its strongest level for over 5 years on most measures. ​

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​The number of new sales agreed per agent in August is 76% above the 5 year average with a similar trend in demand while average sales periods decline.​

This is not just pent up demand returning to the market. It also reflects the impact of a once in a lifetime reassessment of the nation’s housing needs in the wake of the 50+ day lockdown. Homeowners and renters are reconsidering their housing requirements, characterised by a search for more space and changing expectations for work and commuting patterns.

The strength of demand and sales is supporting the headline rate of UK house price inflation which slowed to +2.5% in July from +2.7% in June. The 3 month growth rate peaked at +1.1% in April on sales agreed before the lockdown and has now almost halved to +0.6%.

​House prices to increase over 2020 despite recession

At a city level growth rates are holding steady with average prices rising at over 4% per annum in Nottingham and Manchester and 16 of the 20 cities recording growth of 2% or more. There is no sign of any immediate deterioration in price growth despite the onset of economic recession. Government support for the economy has been vital in supporting business and consumer confidence.

Looking back over the last 60 years there have been 5 recessions with nominal house price falls recorded over the last two (1990/91 and 2008/9). These more recent recessions were deeper and lasted longer than those before. Every recession has different underlying drivers and the current one is no different. The most important aspects for UK housing is the impact on household incomes, credit availability, mortgage rates and unemployment.

While the economy has contracted sharply and unemployment is rising, consumer spending has rebounded and purchasing manager indices are pointing to a wider rebound in the economy. This is positive but the unwinding of the furlough scheme and other Government support is the next challenge that will test the strength of economic recovery. In the short term we still believe that house prices will end the year 2% to 3% higher than at the start.

​All content from Zoopla/Hometrack - full report available here