Hometrack UK Cities Index - June 2020

The really useful index from Zoopla/Hometrack shows a modest increase in city house prices. Once again, it is Northern England leading the way.

• Momentum from start of year and post lockdown continues to support headline rate of house price growth.
  
• Activity levels have rebounded strongly post lockdown but year to date volume of sales agreed are 20% lower than in 2019.
  
• We expect sales volumes for 2020 to be 15% lower than 2019, a much improved outlook than a few months ago.
  
• Stamp duty changes have delivered an immediate boost to sales in London.
  
• UK house price growth rate set to remain positive for 2020, house price falls will come in 2021 with scale dependent upon economic impact.

House price growth edges higher

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UK house price inflation in the 12 months to June 2020 edged higher to +2.7%, the highest level of annual growth for almost 2 years. The post election rebound boosted sales and activity over Q1 which is still feeding into the headline index.

The monthly UK growth rate has halved to +0.2% and city price indices are registering slower annual growth as a result of the lockdown.

There is no evidence of any material, localised price falls across the index series at regional or city level. A small proportion of local areas are registering small month on month price falls of up to 0.2%.

Given current trends we do not expect the headline rate of annual growth to move into negative territory over 2020. A growing imbalance of supply and demand is set to support prices over 2020 and sales agreed today will be completing up until November. Any price falls in the headline UK Index are more likely in 2021 H1.

Demand increases most in Northern cities

​The increase in demand compared to 2019 has been stronger in regional cities across northern England. The flow of new supply has been impacted across all areas as a result of the market closure.

The greatest short term support for prices will be in cities where demand has grown the most over the first 7 months of 2020 compared to 2019. Manchester, Liverpool and Nottingham have registered the highest growth in demand, and it is notable that they are also in the top 5 cities for annual house price growth.

All content from Zoopla/Hometrack. The full report may be found here