House prices cool a little - at last

Nationwide posted a small decline in UK house prices of 0.5% for the month, Belfast makes a rare appearance on Zoopla's list of high performing cities and Savills' are still bullish in their latest five year forecast. We have the numbers here.

With the maximum stamp duty discount falling from £15,000 to £2,500 overnight, there was a rush to get the job done by the 30th June. July was therefore a little more muted, although transactions were still higher than the norm for this time of year, despite the shortage of stock.

Larger homes in the south continue to be the biggest driver of price increases, but at the city-by-city level the North and Midlands dominate with Belfast making a rare appearance.

Savills have not changed their long term outlook. Their revised five year forecast remains largely the same, but front loaded with bigger gains in 2021 than previously thought at the expense of following years.

Nationwide's numbers for July

	July 2021	June 2021
Monthly change	-0.5%	+0.7%
Annual change	+10.5%	+13.4%
Average price ​Not seasonally adjusted	£244,229	£245,432

The modest fallback in July was unsurprising given the significant gains recorded in recent months. Indeed, house prices increased by an average of 1.6% a month over the April to June period – more than six times the average monthly gain recorded in the five years before the pandemic.

Underlying demand is likely to remain solid in the near term. Consumer confidence has rebounded in recent months while borrowing costs remain low. This, combined with a lack of supply on the market, suggests continued support for house prices. But, as we look toward the end of the year, the outlook is harder to foresee.

Robert Gardner
Chief Economist, Nationwide

Zoopla/Hometrack's top five cities

	Average Price	June 2021 ​y-o-y	June 2020 ​y-o-y
Liverpool	£133,500	+8.9%	+3.2%
Belfast	£146,200	+7.7%	+1.6%
Manchester	£188,900	+7.4%	+4.4%
Sheffield	£149,300	+7.0%	+2.8%
Nottingham	£172,100	+6.9%	+4.8%

Prices are still being supported by strong levels of demand in the market. While buyer demand has eased since the peak in April, when levels were unsustainably high, they are still running 80% higher at this time of year compared to more ‘normal’ market conditions between 2017 and 2019.

As the economy opens up, it is to be expected that demand will ease again, especially as the holiday season starts.

​Zoopla/Hometrack

Savills' five year price forecast

Savills remain bullish on the UK residential property market. Their overall expectations for the five year period are similar to their last update but they now anticipate 2021 being stronger (+9% vs +5%) at the expense of slightly slower increases in the following years.