The big city rebound - where prices go next

Over the last eighteen months, rural properties have driven average price rises, with urban areas faring less well. Now the pendulum is swinging back. JLL suggest how values might increase in our biggest cities

As at the end of November, the national average home price had risen 9.9% year to date, yet the Hometrack City Index stood at just 7%. Since the end of lockdown, estate agents report a surge of interest. How will this translate into urban property prices?

​Cities will bounce back more strongly in terms of price growth and rental growth than rural areas a  there continues to be a renewed desire to return to more ‘normal life’. This bounce will particularly be felt in 2022 and 2023.

​UK Residential Forecasts 2022-2026 - JLL

Prime Central London is a market unto itself, driven by wealthy non-residents buying and selling multi-million pound properties amongst themselves. Of greater interest to more modest investors will be the outer boroughs, where JLL anticipate a strong gain of 26% over the next five years.

Birmingham is the city where JLL expects to see the highest price growth over the period. The city will be a major beneficiary of HS2 and important employers are establishing city centre premises or expanding existing ones. Population growth will continue to outstrip supply, pushing both rental and purchase prices higher. Anticipated price rises 2022-2026 - 27%..

Manchester is expected to experience the highest economic growth over the next five years, according to Oxford Economics. This will put further pressure on the city centre housing market, where the acute undersupply is expected to grow.  Prices up by c. 26%, says JLL. 

Summary

	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	Total
Birmingham	6%	5%	4%	4.5%	5%	27%
Bristol	5.5%	5%	3.5%	4%	5%	25%
Greater London	6%	5.5%	3.5%	4%	4.5%	26%
Leeds	5%	4.5%	3%	4%	4.5%	23%
Liverpool	5%	4%	3%	3.5%	4%	21%
Manchester	6%	4.5%	4%	4%	4.5%	26%

UK Residential Forecasts 2022-2026 - JLL

See also
​UK property prices - 2022 and beyond