UK property investment - themes to watch in 2022

The pandemic has been the big driver of the property market over the last two years, but other influences - old and new -  are likely to emerge over the coming months.

Greater stability with continued price growth

The race for space will continue into 2022 but looks certain to slow down. The stamp duty holiday is of course, firmly in the rear view mirror. Property investors, however, can look forward to a solid if unspectacular year ahead.

According to Tim Bannister, director of property data at Rightmove, “The kind of frenzied market we've seen in the last 18 months happens only a few times in most home-owners' buying and selling lifetimes, exacerbated by the even rarer event of a global pandemic pushing homes higher up most people’s priorities. As we head into the New Year, we expect a housing market moving closer to normal during the course of 2022". 

However, the shortage of housing supply remains an issue, prompting most mainstream commentators to predict price rises of between 3% and 5% by the end of the year.

Big city centres going from strength to strength

Speculation about the death of the cities has been shown to be wrong. While the retail and night-time industries will take a long time to recover, the populations of the biggest city centres has actually risen substantially during the pandemic, This is particularly true in Northern England, where Manchester's city centre population has increased by some 3,000 and Leeds by 5,000.

New buyer enquiries are back to pre-pandemic levels and letting agents report the highest waiting lists on record.

It is not stopping there. Leeds' local plan provides for 18,000 more residents in the centre by 2033 and Manchester believes that the centre's population could grow by 30,000 within five years.

Rising interest rates and inflation

Just a few weeks ago, the Bank of England increased the base rate from it's all time low of 0.1%, but only to a very modest 0.25%.

Rising interest rates are a one way bet and the market is pricing in another increase in the near term. Beyond that, it seems rates are not likely to rise by a great deal. Oxford economics suggest a gradual rise to 1.2% by the end of 2026.

Inflation may be more of a factor over the coming months. If, as some have suggested, it reaches 7%, a lack of consumer confidence could dampen the housing market.

The drive towards energy efficient homes

From 2025, it will be illegal for residential landlords to arrange new tenancies for properties with an Energy Performance Certificate of C or below. It is estimated that some 60% of the UK's housing stock fails to meet this standard. Existing tenancies have until 2028 to effect the upgrades needed.

The costs of retrofitting will vary with each individual property, with estimates ranging from £6,000 to over £16,000.

Undoubtably, many owners will sell. Some may exit the market completely, others will rotate into more energy efficient properties.

It has been reported by some mainstream newspapers that the time limit for new lets may be extended by one year.

A continuing strong rental market

There is a strong correlation between rental prices and average incomes. A huge shortage of available properties disrupted that relationship over the last year, but it is likely to be restored during 2022.

While forecasts vary, experts consider that average rents are likely to increase by between 2.5% and 4.5% this year.

The greatest opportunities for new investors are in the major regional centres. Pipeline construction in Manchester, Birmingham and Leeds is far behind the levels of demand forecast by their local authorities. Both capital growth and rental yields are expected to outperform the national averages.