UK property prices - 2022 and beyond

The race for space and government intervention upended experts' predictions for the last two years, but with the experience gained, what do they think will happen this time around? Thoughts from JLL and Savills.

Record levels of activity, driven by high demand and stamp duty holidays, have pushed The rate of price rises to their highest level since 2006. Property services giants JLL and Savills offer their thoughts on what might lie ahead over the coming years

Both believe that the current momentum will carry over into the new year. The high level of mortgage approvals in Q4 supports this view and Zoopla reports that demand is currently running at 20% more than the five year average. The overall consensus is that activity will continue to be high, but less frantic than the last twelve months.

Five year forecasts

	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
JLL	4.5	4.5	3.0	3.5	4.5
Savills	3.5	3.0	2.5	2.0	1.5

JLL's comments

UK house price growth over the past 12 months has been the highest since before the Global Financial Crisis.

​There will continue to be strong price growth across all major markets, albeit at  slower rate of growth to reflect the removal of the stamp duty holiday, removal of furlough and some current uncertainty and disruption around fuel, deliveries, and inflation.

Price and rental growth is expected to cool in 2024 after an extended period of strong growth.

UK Residential Forecasts 2022-2026 - JLL

Savills

There will be less urgency in the market from 2022.

We expect price growth next year to be much more muted than we have seen of late, with the prospect of the current burst of inflation persisting into next year and bringing forward the first anticipated interest rate rise.

But in the short term, there are a number of economic factors that support decelerating price growth as opposed to something more dramatic.

In the North and Midlands, where aordability is less constrained, we can expect price growth to outperform. But in regions such as London and the South East, where aordability was already stretched, this will limit the pace of price growth over the next five years.

Residential Property Forecasts Winter 2021 - Savills

Similar price rises for 2022 are being forecast by other commentators. The Royal Institute of Charters Surveyors suggests between 3% and 5%, CBRE 4%. The biggest portal, Rightmove comes in at 5% and competitor Zoopla at 3% overall, but higher in Northern England and the Midlands.

See also
The big city rebound - where prices go next